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<body>
<div class="iris_headline">IRIS Toolbox Reference Manual</div>




<h2 id="model/jforecast">jforecast</h2>
<div class="headline">Forecast with judgmental adjustments (conditional forecasts)</div>

<h4 id="syntax">Syntax</h4>
<pre><code>F = jforecast(M,D,Range,...)</code></pre>
<h4 id="input-arguments">Input arguments</h4>
<ul>
<li><p><code>M</code> [ model ] - Solved model object.</p></li>
<li><p><code>D</code> [ struct ] - Input data from which the initial condition is taken.</p></li>
<li><p><code>Range</code> [ numeric ] - Forecast range.</p></li>
</ul>
<h4 id="output-arguments">Output arguments</h4>
<ul>
<li><code>F</code> [ struct ] - Output struct with the judgmentally adjusted forecast.</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="options">Options</h4>
<ul>
<li><p><code>'anticipate='</code> [ <em><code>true</code></em> | <code>false</code> ] - If true, real future shocks are anticipated, imaginary are unanticipated; vice versa if false.</p></li>
<li><p><code>'currentOnly='</code> [ <em><code>true</code></em> | <code>false</code> ] - If <code>true</code>, MSE matrices will be computed only for the current-dated variables, not for their lags or leads.</p></li>
<li><p><code>'deviation='</code> [ <code>true</code> | <em><code>false</code></em> ] - Treat input and output data as deviations from balanced-growth path.</p></li>
<li><p><code>'dtrends='</code> [ <em><code>'auto'</code></em> | <code>true</code> | <code>false</code> ] - Measurement data contain deterministic trends.</p></li>
<li><p><code>'initCond='</code> [ <em><code>'data'</code></em> | <code>'fixed'</code> ] - Use the MSE for the initial conditions if found in the input data or treat the initical conditions as fixed.</p></li>
<li><p><code>'meanOnly='</code> [ <code>true</code> | <em><code>false</code></em> ] - Return only mean data, i.e. point estimates.</p></li>
<li><p><code>'plan='</code> [ plan ] - Simulation plan specifying the exogenised variables and endogenised shocks.</p></li>
<li><p><code>'vary='</code> [ struct | <em>empty</em> ] - Database with time-varying std deviations or cross-correlations of shocks.</p></li>
</ul>
<h4 id="description">Description</h4>
<p>When adjusting the mean and/or std devs of shocks, you can use real and imaginary numbers ot distinguish between anticipated and unanticipated shocks:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>any shock entered as an imaginary number is treated as an anticipated change in the mean of the shock distribution;</p></li>
<li><p>any std dev of a shock entered as an imaginary number indicates that the shock will be treated as anticipated when conditioning the forecast on the reduced-form tunes.</p></li>
<li><p>the same shock or its std dev can have both the real and the imaginary part.</p></li>
</ul>
<h4 id="description-1">Description</h4>
<h4 id="example">Example</h4>

</body>
<div class="copyright">IRIS Toolbox. Copyright &copy; 2007&#8212;2013 Jaromir Benes.</div>
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